{"id":497,"date":"2026-06-18T10:35:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T10:35:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/?p=497"},"modified":"2026-08-10T21:15:38","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T21:15:38","slug":"two-tracks-two-kinds-of-power-what-bonn-reveals-about-climate-negotiations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/?p=497","title":{"rendered":"What SB64 Reveals About Climate Negotiations"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"497\" class=\"elementor elementor-497\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6ebb92c4 elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-items-middle\" data-id=\"6ebb92c4\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3a3e1621\" data-id=\"3a3e1621\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-18610b9d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"18610b9d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-medium\">BRIEFING<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-63d70e41 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"63d70e41\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-medium\">Exploring power asymmetries in SB64 climate negotiations<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7081c6b elementor-icon-list--layout-inline elementor-align-center elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"7081c6b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items elementor-inline-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-far-calendar-alt\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M148 288h-40c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v40c0 6.6-5.4 12-12 12zm108-12v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm96 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm-96 96v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm-96 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm192 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm96-260v352c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V112c0-26.5 21.5-48 48-48h48V12c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v52h128V12c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v52h48c26.5 0 48 21.5 48 48zm-48 346V160H48v298c0 3.3 2.7 6 6 6h340c3.3 0 6-2.7 6-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">June 18, 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-pen\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M290.74 93.24l128.02 128.02-277.99 277.99-114.14 12.6C11.35 513.54-1.56 500.62.14 485.34l12.7-114.22 277.9-277.88zm207.2-19.06l-60.11-60.11c-18.75-18.75-49.16-18.75-67.91 0l-56.55 56.55 128.02 128.02 56.55-56.55c18.75-18.76 18.75-49.16 0-67.91z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Eugene N Nforngwa<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2sictko elementor-section-content-top elementor-reverse-mobile elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2sictko\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-background-overlay\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0c36485\" data-id=\"0c36485\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5 data-interaction-id=\"7713985\" class=\"e-7713985-d19dcbc e-heading-base\">CLIMATE NEGOTIATION BRIEF<\/h5>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-de68298 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"de68298\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The 2026 Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB64) wrapped up its mid-conference stretch with adaptation, climate finance, and the fossil fuel transition all billed as top priorities heading into COP31 in Antalya. Listen to the speeches and you&#8217;d think these issues carry equal weight. Look at how each is actually moving through the negotiating system, and a different picture emerges.<\/p><p><strong>The energy transition has exit options.<\/strong> When the formal UNFCCC process stalls, this agenda keeps finding other ways forward. In April, 57 countries convened in Santa Marta, Colombia, deliberately outside the treaty process, to work on managing fossil fuel decline and building clean energy pathways at a pace multilateral consensus hasn&#8217;t reached. Energy-security anxiety, sharpened by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, is now doing more to drive transition urgency than equity arguments ever did. And trade policy, particularly the EU&#8217;s carbon border adjustments, is letting advanced economies set transition terms unilaterally, prompting India and the broader G77\/LMDC bloc to push for those measures to be addressed inside the UNFCCC framework instead.<\/p><p><strong>Adaptation has no comparable escape route.<\/strong> It depends entirely on the same consensus machine that keeps converting urgency into dialogues, workshops, and indicator frameworks rather than binding finance. The gap is not subtle: roughly $32 billion in international adaptation finance reached developing countries in 2024, against an estimated need of $310\u2013365 billion annually by 2030. Most of what does arrive comes as loans, not grants \u2014 finance that can deepen the very vulnerability it&#8217;s meant to address. The Bel\u00e9m Adaptation Indicators, meant to eventually link finance to measurable outcomes, are still being built, deferring delivery further.<\/p><p>This is the real story of SB64: not that one issue is ignored while the other is championed, but that one track can build coalitions and bypass deadlock while the other remains hostage to a process that keeps offering process in place of capital.<\/p><p>As negotiators head toward COP31, the question worth watching isn&#8217;t who talks about adaptation and the transition the most \u2014 it&#8217;s who gets the leverage to make their priority move, and who&#8217;s left waiting on consensus.<\/p><p><em>Read ARI&#8217;s full policy brief on the power dynamics shaping SB64.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8a02e68 elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"8a02e68\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ARI_Bonn_SB64_Power_Dynamics_Brief_1.0-2.pdf\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Read the Full Brief<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-26fcf8e\" data-id=\"26fcf8e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ff4cfca elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"ff4cfca\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"1000\" src=\"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Energy-Transition-vs.-Adaptation-819x1024.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-498\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Energy-Transition-vs.-Adaptation-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Energy-Transition-vs.-Adaptation-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Energy-Transition-vs.-Adaptation-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Energy-Transition-vs.-Adaptation.webp 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BRIEFING Exploring power asymmetries in SB64 climate negotiations June 18, 2026 Eugene N Nforngwa CLIMATE NEGOTIATION BRIEF The 2026 Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB64) wrapped up its mid-conference stretch with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":630,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=497"}],"version-history":[{"count":47,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1290,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions\/1290"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanresilienceinstitute.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}